Disaster Strikes? How Was The CCC Round Of 16?
Eight MLS teams entered the Round of 16 … did I predict that only 3 would survive?
Sadly, the Champions Cup fell in line with the Liga MX tradition of dominance and did not follow the League’s Cup results.
Liga MX won four of the six matchups against the MLS, with the other two ending in first-leg scoreless draws on the road (aka a professionally managed result). But we are not here to relive the history and present of Liga MX’s dominance over the MLS, how did my predictions perform this round?
Quick Refresh
TLDR, I utilized the CONCACAF club index to predict this year’s CONCACAF Champions Cup:
The index went 7 for 8 in Round One, with Herediano’s upset over Toluca being the only incorrect pick. However, past results are not guarantees of future success.
So, how helpful were the CONCACAF rankings in predicting the Round of 16?
Let’s Take A Look At The Bracket
The predictions for the top half of the bracket are relatively competitive. The ranking projected two MLS teams reach the quarterfinals, and the Philadelphia Union make a semifinal appearance … the green portion of the bracket did not age well:
Matchup #1: Pachuca vs Philadelphia
The ranking picked Philadelphia in a tight contest against Pachuca. But this matchup was anything but close, with Pachuca earning a well-managed 0 to 0 road draw in the first leg before dominating Philadelphia.
Matchup #2: Robinhood vs Herediano
The shocking result of Round One was Toluca falling to Herediano on away goals. Herediano then followed through and earned a comfortable 3 to 1 win over Robinhood … a tough start for the CONCACAF index, failing to predict a single team in this quarterfinal matchup.
Matchup #3: Club América vs Chivas Guadalajara
According to the ranking Club América is the favorite in this entire tournament … and they did not disappoint in this rivalry matchup. But do the three away goals conceded provide some useful tape for the Revolution? The index says no …
Matchup #4: New England vs Alajuelense
The ranking projected New England to handle Alajuelense despite them earning a bye in Round One. This proved to be a sage prediction, with the Revolution dominating this tie after a dominant 4 to 0 win in leg 1.
Ok, so a fifty-fifty start for the index! How did the bottom half of the bracket go? Here are my predictions:
Matchup #5: Houston vs Columbus
The ranking picked Houston in the first of two all-MLS battles. Similar to Round One Houston lost leg one after allowing a stoppage-time goal, but Houston was then unable to come back against the former MLS champions.
Matchup #6: Tigres vs Orlando
A repeat matchup of last year’s Champions League matchup … with the same result. Tigres moved on with a multi-goal victory at home, even after conceding a red card.
Matchup #7: Monterrey vs FC Cincinnati
This battle of a Liga MX giant versus the reigning MLS Supporters Shield winner was a competitive battle, however, Monterrey won both legs in the tie and comfortable moved on with a 3 to 1 advantage.
Matchup #8: Nashville vs Inter Miami
The tournament organizers breathed a massive sigh of relief with Luis Suarez scoring a stoppage time goal to tie leg one of this matchup. With two away goals in their back pocket, Inter Miami easily moved on by winning at home in the second leg.
So, What Does This Mean Going Forward?
When in doubt pick Liga MX in the Champions League! Philadelphia was the only MLS team projected to beat Liga MX opposition.
However, there is one clear team that has been underrated by the index … Messi and friends *cough* *cough* I mean Inter Miami.
While I am personally rooting for the Revolution and am impressed with the returning MLS champions in Columbus, I am not losing any sleep expecting them to lose to the Liga MX giants.
However, the Messi effect cannot be understated. As long as he is healthy, Miami fans will have hope regardless of the Liga MX opposition.
They Do Not Play The Games On Paper
But paper can absolutely tell you who is the favorite. While Inter Miami is criminally underrated, Liga MX needs to be favored in the quarterfinal matchups. Count me as one of the many fans primarily rooting for their team (go Revs!) but secondarily hoping that someone other than the Big 3 Liga MX teams can lift the trophy this year.
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