Can I Trust The MLS Standings Yet?
Four weeks in may be too soon, here is another stat to consider early in 2024.
As a Revolution fan, I am hoping that it is way too early to take anything meaningful from the MLS standings through 4 weeks (but we will definitely be checking back in around weeks 10 to 15).
But if we cannot fully rely on the standings, what can we check to see who are the haves and have-nots of the 2024 MLS season? MLS teams have spent $1.3 Billion on players since 2021. Let’s take a look and see if this money has an interesting story to tell.
Let’s Start With A Large Sample Size
One season of spending is not enough to build a trend of the haves and have-nots (except for St Louis of course). MLS total salaries have been increasing by about 15% each year, and almost doubled from 2018 to 2023, so let’s limit our sample to the past three years to avoid any irrelevant low salaries.
Here are the results, the average amount of money that MLS teams have spent on players over the past three years:
Philadelphia, St Louis, and Orlando City all have a strong case for manager/front office of the 3-years based on their efficient and successful seasons.
Being above an average of $20 million spent on players separates the top four MLS teams from the rest of the pack. Then there are another 8 teams (LAFC to Nashville) that spend an average between $15 to $20 million on players per year, with the final 17 teams mired below an average of $15 million on players per year.
But this cannot tell the whole story, I am not expecting Toronto and the LA Galaxy’s results to hold even if they are off to surprising starts. Plus, the Chicago Fire’s high levels of investment never seem to pay off, so why should this year be any different?
To find out, let’s take a look at the most important players.
Who Employs The Most Millionaires?
Why is $1 million in guaranteed compensation for one player an important distinction? There are two main reasons:
Firstly, this is the minimum amount of money that is needed to bring in superstars like David Beckham, Lorenzo Insigne, Zlatan Ibrahimović, and many others that have increased the name recognition of the MLS around the globe.
This global-scale marketing was crucial for the MLS to get off the ground and legitimize itself as a professional league. But the MLS has moved beyond the Beckham era concerns and added a second criterion for spending big bucks on players.
The second reason that millionaire players are a big deal is that this amount of money is needed to bring in the players that add substance to the MLS game, even if they are less heralded than the older European superstars.
Think Miguel Almirón’s MLS Cup-winning contributions with Atlanta, before moving on to success at Newcastle helped to further legitimize the MLS. That opportunity would not have happened if Atlanta were not willing to pay seven figures while the player wore an MLS jersey. This level of money was also needed to bring World Cup-winning Thiago Almada to the league, who is now months away from hopefully pulling off the same transfer and success as Almirón.
These millionaire players also contribute to the massive gains MLS has made on its own field, regardless of transfer success. For example, Nicolás Lodeiro and Raúl Ruidíaz were crucial to Seattle winning the first Continental trophy over a Liga MX team.
So, the MLS teams that employ the most millionaires need to be celebrated. But does this level of spending serve to predict whether a team will be successful in 2024?
We can shift the focus here from dollars spent to the average number of millionaires employed on each MLS team over the past three years and keep an eye out for FC Cincinnati and St Louis’ rise in particular:
The number of millionaires on a team may be a secret sauce to success. If you had to guess, who earned more guaranteed compensation in 2023, Shaqiri in Chicago or the Cincinnati quintuplet of Luciano Acosta, Aaron Boupendza, Yuya Kubo, Matt Miazga, and Obinna Nwobodo?
It is close, but Shaqiri’s $8.2 million just edged out the combined $7.3 million earned by those five players in Cincinnati.
Salary Is Far From Perfect
Admittedly, we are only a couple of weeks into the MLS season. So, I am certainly not predicting that Orlando City will stay at the bottom of the MLS in 2024, nor am I predicting that Minnesota will fall from the top of the Western Conference. However, this information will be crucial to review when the 2024 preliminary salary data is released in the coming months.
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